Fall out of Indo-US nuclear deal

By K.N. Pandita

The landmark deal of March 2, 2006 has caused ripples in the waters of geo-political strategy for the region. Its fall out on international politics is also discernible.

Two Asian countries, Pakistan and China have been keeping a close track of events. They have stakes in one way or the other. Pakistan’s main worry is that US has moved away from half a century – old parity politics in South Asia. It demands that her policy planners revisit the features of Pak-US relations in immediate and distant future.

China anticipates sharpening of Sino-Indian rivalry on the one hand and deepening of Indo-Pak estrangement on the other. Thus she has to move along two parallel lines simultaneously.

The first step, which Pakistan has taken to counter the Indo-US camaraderie, is to vitiate the deal in the eyes of Congressmen, media and opinion makers in the US and abroad. She has activated her lobbies in the US Congress, the western lending agencies and the European Union circles.

Islamabad is using the tools, diplomacy and blackmail, to get the deal scuttled. She has called it the wrecking of NPT and has raised an alarm of a mad rush of nuclear proliferation. When Pakistani Prime Minister says that his country can think of other things, it does carry an alarming message.

On diplomatic level, Pakistan thinks of forging closer nuclear and technological cooperation with China. By this she means to send a message to Washington besides actually asking Beijing to size up with the American largesse to the Indians. Whether that happens or not is anybody’s guess.

Another interesting feature of the fall out of the deal seems to be the prelude to Sino-Iranian-Pakistani nuclear nexus. Islamabad will not fail to draw a mileage from Iran’s displeasure with India on latter’s vote against Iran in IAEA. China and Pakistan both have played key role in providing nuclear know-how to Iran. With Damocles’ sword hanging on the neck of Iran, a tripartite understanding of sorts should not be ruled out either.

As new strategies continue to evolve, chances of China stonewalling emergence of India as a nuclear power recede. More importantly, India’s realization that the use of nuclear power for military purposes beyond it deterrence factor needs to be replaced by its civilian use indicates India’s focusing on economic growth. That is what China cannot arrest.

In domestic sphere, the fallout of the deal has already been felt. Its manifestation has been noticed in escalation of violence and the antics of some political dwarfs. Violence a la Varanasi and political blackmailing a la Omar Abdullah on Kashmir accession can be cited as examples. The Hurriyat singing encomiums to the US all the time, has suddenly found left to fend for itself following Bush’s statement that India and Pakistan should together resolve the issue and that his country has no intention of mediating.

This has pushed the separatists and secessionists to a corner and their retaliation is expected in a bigger way. So is the escalation of terrorist acts expected in the valley?

Pakistan’s unease has begun to show itself in the recent utterances of her Prime Minister. Ire of radicals against the US and India is bound to rage with full fury. It is so because Pakistani ruling circles have no option but to throw their weight behind the yelling radicals.

Add to this scenario the discomfiture of President Musharraf whose whole ruling apparatus has been defending its “democratic” credentials ever since Bush told him to hold elections in2007. A message has gone to him that Indo-Pak dialogue may be in place but India may not be prepared to sign a deal with any government that has not come to power through a democratic means.

The fact of the matter is that Washington understands how Punjab, the ruling province of Pakistan, is sandwiched between the Osamite terrorists to the north and Baluch nationalists to the south. Only a fair election can prevent balkanization of the country. Thus Bush has been a well wisher of Musharraf though the latter thinks otherwise. At the end of the day it is the people of Pakistan who matter the most. (The writer is the former Director, Centre of Central Asian Studies, University of Kashmir, India).