Turmoil in NWFP and threats to India’s security

By K.N. Pandit

Ground situation in US and NATO’s war on terror in NWFP region significantly deteriorated during 2008. Taliban are in virtual control of Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies, and in the Swat Valley, just three hours drive from capital Islamabad, only Taliban’s writ runs. Pakistan’s armed personnel guarding her check posts just duck their heads whenever a group of armed Taliban crosses their way.

Taliban’s regular guerilla attacks on enemy camps are causing casualties. Recently they blew up a bridge on the road to strategic Khyber Pass over which 80 per cent of NATO’s supplies proceed to war front in Afghanistan. This has forced NATO and US commanders think of an alternate route less vulnerable to Taliban ambushes and attacks.

The alternate route under consideration is that of Trans-Caspia to Turkmenistan, Unbeaten, Tajikistan and then across the Oxus at Tirmez to Northern Afghanistan. It is longer and more expensive in comparison to Karachi-Khyber route. But it has to be worked out.

Talks with the leaders of Central Asian Republics and Moscow over the alternate route have been concluded successfully and civil supplies will flow opening a new chapter in the history of transportation between Central Asia and Western Europe.

Does the exploration of new route mean that Pakistan’s strategic importance to the USA and NATO will be considerably reduced in the region? Of course, this will be one of several probable consequences. Islamabad’s contention is that its control over the recalcitrant Pakistani Taliban is not foolproof but by now US policy planners know what is what in NWFP of Pakistan.

Search for alternate route is not confined to Trans-Caspia only. Vice President Biden will be talking to the leaders in Teheran for another option which is via the Iranian port of Chah Bahar to Afghanistan.

Thus the US is groping for an answer to Islamabad’s blackmail of withdrawing her troops from NWFP war front to the Indian border in the aftermath of Mumbai carnage and leaving the strategic transportation route to Kabul vulnerable to the perfidy of the Taliban. It could also be reaction to the Taliban and their cohorts in Peshawar area disrupting the line of communication to Jalalabad.

The US is working along two strategies in the region. One is the “surge forward” in US military presence meaning raising twofold the present combat strength to 60000 soldiers. The second is to open dialogue with moderate Taliban for a peace deal and isolate hardliners among them.

The warlike people of NWFP have seldom succumbed to the antics of occupant forces in their long and chequered history. They fought against the British, Russians and now are fighting the Americans. The much trumpeted “new strategy” for Afghanistan has bleak chances of success.

In the process, dispatch of a high level delegation to Teheran under the leadership of vice president Biden is a significant move on the regional chessboard. It is to use the Iranian lever to strengthen moderate Taliban for talks. What price Teheran will demand and what Biden can give is yet to be seen. Will Teheran have any tangible success in her role in Afghan crisis is also a moot point. Of course the olive branch which Biden is likely to offer the Ayatollahs is of allowing Teheran a say in the resolution of Iraq imbroglio.

In Pakistan, there is a triangular tussle raging on domestic level in which the army and civil administration are at loggerheads over action against militant Taliban and the home-bred radicals, and then differences between the Prime Minister and the President are deepening. Civilian government’s control over fast changing situation in NWFP particularly in Waziristan, Mohmand, Bajaur and Swat has been reduced to minimum. This has immensely boosted the morale of Pakistani Taliban, a new entity, which the American and NATO forces have to reckon with. The rise of this entity is now forcing Washington to re-consider its policy towards Pakistan and discordant notes are heard on this count.

In case US and NATO are able to drive a wedge in the rank and file of Taliban on the basis of moderate and extremist divide, the game may work in Afghanistan. But Pakistani Taliban and frontier theocratic militants are a different story. The chances of dividing them on the basis of moderate and extremists are rather bleak.

India has a direct stake in what develops in NWFP and Pak-Afghanistan border region. In both cases of Taliban crushed by the American-NATO forces or US finalizing a deal with them through negotiations, Kashmir militancy will be directly affected. The fleeing Taliban from NWFP including Al Qaeda outfits could find Kashmir a second safe haven for re-grouping at a remote and secure place to re-launch forays into NWFP in support of Taliban legions.

Again in the case of a negotiated settlement with the Americans as well, the Taliban and their jihadis will find it a sport to engage Indian troops in Kashmir in pitched battles over a vast war front. Militancy in Kashmir will find sudden spurt and the entire strategic map will have to be redrawn.

With Swat Valley now under the control of the jihadis and Pakistan not at all in a mood to take on them, the inference is that economic considerations will be a compulsion for the Swat jihadis to move eastward, and the road to Kashmir,  a traditional mediaeval times route, brings them straight in the valley of Kashmir. Notably, Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI has been spreading the rumour in Swat Valley that it is the Indian intelligence agency RAW that has been fomenting insurgency in Swat and that Hindus have been pouring in large monies through their local conduits to support anti-Pakistan armed insurgency. In spreading canards like these the ISI has two main purposes. One is to dilute the impression that a Muslim country is waging war against its Muslim population and second is that Swati jihadis are induced to march into Kashmir to take revenge from the Indians there.

India’s options are pathetically non-existent. No diplomatic effort will succeed to ward off a threat posed by this development. The reason is that in the light of an impending deal with the Taliban, the US extradites itself from the mess in NWFP and leaves the rest of the stakeholders to lick their wounds.

In the State of Jammu and Kashmir, a young and rather inexperienced chief minister will not be in a strong position to mobilize public opinion in his or in India’s favour. It has to be noted that pro-Pakistan forces in Kashmir hitherto posing as secularists but unable to hide their real intentions, are on the prowl.

Additionally, if the Indian Army Chief is to be believed, Pakistan has revived no fewer than 53 terrorist camps in PoK and Hazara region which is contiguous to Swat. According to information received from reliable sources, much more sophisticated weaponry is poured into these training camps and the network of ISI is fairly spread out in major cities of India.

Keeping the past history in view, there are not many chances for a combined US – NATO forces to make much headway in Afghanistan in foreseeable future notwithstanding the much hyped “new strategy” which Pentagon exudes. The appointment of Holbrooke as special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan speaks a lot about the deepening crisis in the region.

Pakistan tried to club Kashmir also in the terms of reference for Holbrook and had actually lobbied that this should help derail the status quo in Kashmir. However, Washington has not succumbed to the tactics and has excluded Kashmir from Holbrooke’s agenda. But that is not a big solace for India. Whatever happens in the lawless frontier region of Pakistan, India can in no case lower her guard along the western border in Jammu and Kashmir. The recurring threat from the lawless tribal lands to the west of Kashmir should be a strong motivation for India to raise a new army command, something like Northern Frontier Corpse with most modern weaponry suited for mountain warfare and its components.
(The writer is the former Director of the Centre for Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University).